Democracy's retreat has become one of the defining political trends of the 21st century. Over the past two decades, a growing number of countries have experienced regime change away from democracy—a process that scholars have conceptualized under the overarching term autocratization. Unlike earlier waves of authoritarianism that emerged from military coups or revolutionary upheavals, contemporary autocratization typically unfolds incrementally, under the leadership of democratically elected governments that gradually dismantle checks and balances while maintaining a facade of electoral legitimacy.

(You can read the Introduction of the report below. Click here to access the full report in pdf)

This report examines the concept of autocratization and its manifestation in two critical cases: Türkiye and Hungary. Both countries were once celebrated as models of democratic transition—Türkiye as a Muslim-majority democracy with potential for consolidation, and Hungary as a frontrunner in post-communist democratization in Central and Eastern Europe. Yet both have experienced profound democratic decline under the leadership of strongmen who came to power through free elections: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Türkiye and Viktor Orbán in Hungary. Despite their different historical trajectories and regional contexts, these leaders have employed strikingly similar strategies to concentrate power, marginalize opposition, capture state institutions, and polarize society.

The report begins by conceptualizing autocratization, distinguishing it from related terms and examining the various institutional forms it can take. It then traces the historical background and contemporary dynamics of autocratization in both Türkiye and Hungary, analyzing how each country transitioned from forms of defective democracy to competitive authoritarianism. The analysis also explores whether these regimes are sliding beyond competitive authoritarianism—a development that appears increasingly likely in Türkiye and remains a debatable possibility for Hungary. Throughout, the report highlights the mechanisms through which elected leaders undermined democratic institutions: constitutional manipulation, judicial capture, media control, electoral engineering, and strategic polarization, drawing on comparative insights to illuminate common patterns while recognizing country-specific contexts.

By examining Türkiye and Hungary in parallel, this report contributes to broader debates about the nature of contemporary authoritarianism and the vulnerability of electoral democracies to incremental erosion. It demonstrates how autocratization proceeds through the strategic exploitation of democratic procedures themselves—elections, referenda, and constitutional reforms—transforming them from mechanisms of accountability into instruments of authoritarian consolidation. The Turkish and Hungarian cases thus serve as cautionary tales about how democratic systems can be hollowed out from within, even while maintaining the outward appearance of electoral competition.

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Dr. Edgar Şar is a co-founder and director of the Istanbul Political Research Institute (IstanPol). He received his PhD in Political Science and International Relations from Boğaziçi University in 2024. His research focuses on autocratization and opposition strategies in authoritarian contexts. He is also a research affiliate at the CEU Democracy Institute.

This policy report was prepared within the framework of the SOS4Democracy project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 101119678.