Germany’s snap federal elections on 23 February have set the stage for significant political shifts that will shape both domestic and foreign policy, especially as the new Trump administration challenges the core of transatlantic relations. Germany's coalition negotiations take on heightened urgency in the age of permacrisis - marked by geopolitical uncertainty, economic pressures, and security challenges. As Europe’s largest economy and a key player in EU policymaking, Germany's shifting political landscape will have profound implications for Türkiye and its relationship with Germany and the EU.

This policy note offers an early analysis of how the new political climate in Germany may influence Türkiye in three complementary dimensions: bilateral relations between Türkiye and Germany, broader EU-level implications, including the ramifications of Germany’s domestic shifts for Türkiye’s role in the emerging European security framework and the Turkish community in Germany.

Election Results: Key Highlights and State of Play

The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) emerged as the strongest party in Germany's most recent federal elections, though it fell short of securing an outright governing mandate. Friedrich Merz is poised to become Germany’s 10^th Chancellor, leading a government that will need to navigate a deeply fragmented Bundestag. Meanwhile, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered its worst electoral performance in history, prompting urgent debates about its future leadership and strategic direction. Despite remaining a key player in coalition talks, the party is undergoing a period of internal reckoning.

A particularly striking outcome was the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which doubled its vote share, secured second place, and became the main opposition party. This marks a critical shift in German politics, raising concerns about deepening polarization and the mainstream parties’ ability to counter the far right. Similarly, the far-left Die Linke doubled its vote share, underscoring broader voter frustration with the political establishment. Notably, younger voters favored fringe parties, women leaned towards left-wing parties, and men skewed right- a dynamic that could shape future considerations.

Once a rising force in German politics, the Greens entered the new Bundestag, severely weakened and disappointed by their electoral outcome. Their leadership is now assessing the strategic missteps that led to their losses. Even more dramatically, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to pass the electoral threshold, leaving it without representation in the Bundestag. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) also narrowly missed entering parliament.

Given this fragmented electoral outcome, the most likely scenario appears to be a grand coalition (Große Koalition) between the CDU/CSU and SPD. However, forming a stable government remains challenging due to the AfD’s strengthened role as the main opposition and internal divisions within the mainstream parties.

Amid these complexities, the exploratory talks (Sondierungsgespräche) between the CDU/CSU and SPD swiftly reached a preliminary deal to form a government. Both parties have agreed on key priorities in record time, including a historic commitment to increasing defense and infrastructure spending. Chancellor-in-waiting Merz has announced a €500 billion infrastructure fund over the next decade, along with plans to exempt defense expenditures exceeding 1% of GDP from Germany’s borrowing limits (Schuldenbremse). This marks a notable departure from the country’s traditionally cautious fiscal policies, reinforcing its commitment to bolstering national and European security. A 1 trillion € deal was reached with the Greens, as Merz needed their support to secure a 2/3 majority of the outgoing parliament. The compromise paves the way for a significant stimulus package, balancing defense, infrastructure, and climate investments. Celebrating the breakthrough, Merz declared, ‘Germany is back’.

Time is of the essence as Germany faces mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The war in Ukraine, U.S. policy shifts, and Middle East tensions are reshaping security priorities and regional stability. Meanwhile, tariff wars, protectionism, economic stagnation, inflation, and energy challenges weigh on Germany’s export-driven economy, requiring coordinated German and EU responses. The goal is to finalize a coalition agreement before the Easter break on 17 April, leaving less than a month to negotiate the division of ministries and define policy priorities in a coalition agreement (Koalitionsvertrag) for the next four years.

The incoming coalition government will have to face a dual challenge: on the one hand, countering the growing influence of the far right domestically, and on the other, preparing for major European and global challenges. At this critical juncture, Chancellor-in-waiting Merz has vowed to do ‘whatever it takes’ to ensure Germany’s stability and leadership.

Bilateral Relations between Türkiye and Germany

Türkiye and Germany’s relationship is multifaceted, encompassing economic, diplomatic, and military cooperation. Bilateral trade volume rose to a record high of €55 billion in 2023, with Germany being Türkiye’s largest trade partner in Europe. High-level engagements, such as the Joint Economic and Trade Commission (JETCO) and the Türkiye-Germany Energy Forum, signal stability in their economic cooperation. Additionally, defense collaborations and high-level diplomatic visits highlight the importance of maintaining a constructive dialogue, such as President Erdoğan’s visit to Berlin in November 2023, where he met with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to discuss regional issues, including the Gaza situation. While Germany’s foreign ministry will likely remain under SPD leadership in a grand coalition constellation, diplomatic relations can be expected to balance continuity with adaptation to new political dynamics.

One of Türkiye's focuses in recent years has been the procurement of advanced arms from Europe, particularly Eurofighter Typhoon jets. During his October 2024 visit to Ankara, Chancellor Scholz signaled progress on this front, emphasizing Germany's commitment to NATO’s security objectives and how they impact arms deliveries to Türkiye. Shortly before Scholz’s visit, the German government announced the resumption of large-scale arms exports to Türkiye. By October 2024, 69 permits worth 103 million € had been issued, including military weapons valued at 840,000 €. Previously, exports had been curbed following the 2016 failed coup attempt in Türkiye and the cross-border military operation to northern Syria. This policy shift signals a renewed military collaboration between the two NATO members. More recently, Türkiye’s defense industry is contributing to Germany’s capabilities, as Repkon secured a major contract to build a turnkey facility, boosting artillery production.

Looking ahead, during Merz’s Chancellorship, the bilateral relationship can be expected to continue on a transactional and rational basis, maintaining a steady pace of development. Both countries will likely continue to engage in a pragmatic approach, focusing on mutual benefits in economic, defense, and diplomatic areas.

A Window for Reinvigorated Engagement in Türkiye-EU Relations

Germany’s position remains pivotal in shaping Türkiye’s European trajectory. While accession negotiations have been at a standstill since 2018, Germany could play a key role in gradually unlocking progress through measures such as the customs union modernization and visa facilitation, in line with the recommendations of the November 2023 Joint Communication to the European Council, the so-called Borrell Report. Additionally, international trade challenges - exacerbated by U.S. protectionist policies under the new Trump Administration - underscore Türkiye’s strategic role in Europe’s supply chain diversification and economic resilience.

The CDU’s 2025 election program acknowledges Türkiye’s strategic importance but rules out full EU membership for the time being, citing a deviation from EU values. However, under Merz’s leadership, Germany may pursue a rebranded strategic cooperation model - a kind of ‘Privileged Partnership 2.0’- where engagement is deepened in key areas without formal accession. This approach would also reflect Europe’s growing shift toward transactionalism, balancing mutual interests while sidestepping the complexities of full membership. Instead of framing it as an alternative to accession, we might expect a forward-looking, pragmatic engagement model rather than a permanent second-tier status.

Moreover, with the rise of far-right politics, Germany’s stance on EU enlargement is likely to become more cautious, further complicating Türkiye’s long-term European perspective- unless Türkiye makes a strong return to the Copenhagen criteria and a convincing effort to reshape its narrative significantly. Unlike the CDU, the SPD’s 2025 election program did not mention Türkiye.

The CDU’s platform emphasizes security, stability, and economic resilience, aligning with Germany’s increasing defense spending and infrastructure investments. As Europe shifts toward a more assertive security posture, exemplified by the ReArm Europe instrument, Türkiye’s relative regional influence and NATO role may attract greater recognition. This shift is driven by growing threats from Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the urgent need for Europe to strengthen its defense capabilities independently of the U.S. amid rising global instability.

In this evolving landscape, Germany remains key in shaping Türkiye - EU relations, particularly as broader geopolitical challenges push both sides toward strategic recalibration and pragmatic cooperation.

The Turkish Community in Germany

Germany’s Turkish diaspora, comprising over three million people, remains important in shaping Türkiye-Germany relations. Half of this community still holds Turkish citizenship, and policies affecting them will play a crucial role in shaping the future of bilateral ties.

Germany’s modernized citizenship law, one of the groundbreaking accomplishments of the previous SPD-led coalition, marked a significant shift in integration policies also affecting people of Turkish origin in Germany by allowing dual citizenship. Facilitating naturalization and allowing dual nationality is expected to enhance political participation and social cohesion, creating new opportunities for Türkiye-Germany relations at a societal level.

With the CDU/CSU likely to take a more conservative approach to integration, there were concerns about renewed debates over citizenship law. However, the weakened SPD still plays a critical role in coalition talks, particularly around policies affecting the Turkish diaspora’s social and political participation. A good indication is that, during the exploratory talks, the current citizenship law was maintained, ensuring no reversal of gains. The SPD is traditionally a key advocate for people with a migratory background. Hence, Germany remains an open and modern country of immigration. In terms of representation, 19 MPs of Turkish origin have entered the Bundestag, with the highest number coming from SPD ranks.

Additionally, Germany’s need for skilled labor (Fachkräftemangel) presents a mutually beneficial opportunity for cooperation, as Türkiye could contribute to Germany’s workforce while ensuring regulated and sustainable migration policies. The CDU's 2025 election program highlights several measures to address the skills shortage in Germany, combining domestic reforms with international collaboration to ensure long-term economic competitiveness. These measures include strengthening the craft sector, promoting targeted skilled migration, aligning education with job market needs, and offering tax incentives and reduced bureaucracy to help companies hire skilled workers. These initiatives can provide better access to the German job market for new economic migrants, including those from Türkiye.

Türkiye’s Strategic Role in European Security Amid Transatlantic Tensions

The evolving transatlantic rivalry underscores Türkiye’s indispensable role in European security. As NATO’s second-largest military force, Türkiye continues to play a critical role in stabilizing regional conflicts and contributing to Europe’s broader security architecture.

Germany, with its multifaceted relationship with Türkiye, could facilitate deeper European engagement in shaping a new security framework that aligns with shared strategic interests. The London High-Level Summit of March 2, where Türkiye was invited, further illustrated the growing recognition of Türkiye’s role in evolving European defense and security architecture, where a ‘coalition of the willing’ emerged. President Erdoğan’s recent statements also signal Ankara’s willingness to engage in broader security discussions, extending beyond NATO structures.

However, Berlin faces significant challenges in recalibrating its approach to European security. With growing doubts about Washington’s reliability as a military ally, Chancellor-in-waiting Merz aims to overhaul Germany’s traditional fiscal orthodoxy. To implement this major policy shift, Merz approaches a tight deadline to secure domestic political consensus by March 25. This shift is particularly critical following President Trump’s withdrawal of military support for Ukraine and his demand that Europe step in and provide Kyiv with security guarantees against Russia.

Moreover, Berlin supports the €150 billion defense investment greenlighted on 6 March 2025 by the Special European Council, advocating that it should be open to non-EU partners such as Great Britain, Norway, Switzerland, and Türkiye, as Europe stands at a historical crossroads in its efforts to support Ukraine towards a fair and lasting peace.

Conclusion

Chancellor-in-waiting Merz’s ‘whatever it takes’ approach signals Germany’s determination to overcome political fragmentation and reinforce stability in a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical environment. This leadership, alongside Trump’s pressure on Ukraine to negotiate a peace deal with Russia, further elevates Türkiye’s strategic importance. The growing push for European military and strategic autonomy aligns with Türkiye’s potential role in shaping a more assertive security posture. Recent developments in Syria and increased U.S.-Türkiye coordination suggest a shift toward improved relations, adding to Türkiye’s geopolitical weight. How this plays out in the future of Türkiye-Germany-EU relations will depend on a delicate balance of domestic political dynamics, international challenges, and Türkiye’s strategic positioning within Europe.

While Germany’s political landscape is undergoing shifts, its foundational ties with Türkiye remain strong. Early indicators suggest a blend of continuity and policy adjustments, particularly in areas of mutual interest. As formal coalition negotiations unfold, it remains to be seen whether Türkiye will be granted greater strategic importance in Germany’s long-term foreign policy trajectory or if it will remain confined to a transactional framework. In this context, Türkiye’s role within the broader European security framework will likely be pivotal in shaping future dynamics.

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Ayşe Yürekli is a Non-Resident Fellow at IstanPol. She is a senior expert and policy advisor in EU affairs, strong voice of civil society, and consultant based in Brussels. She represents KAGİDER in the EU and is an enlargement candidate member of the EESC.

IstanPol thanks Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Türkiye Office for their contribution to this project. The views stated in this paper belong to the author and need not agree, partly or entirely, with the institutional views of IstanPol or Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.