The research titled “Changing Power Dynamics in the Middle East and Perceptions of Turkish Foreign Policy” is based on a survey with 2,000 individuals across 21 provinces and 56 districts in Turkey, carried out between June 2–12, 2025. The survey employed the CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing) method, using quotas based on age, gender, educational background, and voting preferences in the 2023 general elections.

The research aims to analyze public perceptions and attitudes in Turkey regarding foreign policy, with a particular focus on post-civil war developments in Syria and the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. It is structured around nine key questions addressing issues such as the future of Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime, Turkey’s Syria policy, the potential return of Syrian refugees, the impact of Turkey’s stance on the Palestinian cause, relations with Israel, and the normative foundations of Turkish foreign policy.

* The study was carried out with the support of the Heinrich Böll Stiftung Turkey Representation. Click here to access the full report.

Post–civil war Syria

According to the findings, a majority of the Turkish public (57.6%) believes that Turkey played an influential role in the downfall of the Assad regime. This view is more strongly held among voters of the ruling AK Party and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), whereas it receives comparatively lower support among voters of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the DEM Party. Furthermore, 44.2% of respondents support the continued presence of Turkish military forces in Syria in the post-Assad era.

Syrian refugees

A significant majority of participants (73.5%) believe that Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey will return to their home country following the fall of the Assad regime. This expectation is widely shared across both government and opposition voters.

Syrian Kurds and Turkey’s policies

Only 35.8% of respondents agree with the statement that “Syrian Kurds should play an active role in shaping the country’s future,” while 48.7% disagree. Additionally, 34.9% of the public believes that Turkey’s policies toward the Kurds in Syria are not friendly—this perception exceeds 50% among DEM Party voters.

Turkey’s Israel–Palestine policy

While 45.2% of respondents agree that Turkey continues to engage in trade with Israel despite widespread criticism, only 37.0% believe that Turkey’s foreign policy toward Israel benefits the Palestinian people. Moreover, 55.4% of participants think that a change in government would lead to a more effective foreign policy in conflict zones such as Syria and Palestine.

Foreign policy priorities

When asked what Turkey should prioritize in its foreign policy regarding the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, 40.3% of respondents cite national interests and security, 26.1% emphasize regional diplomacy and mediation, 21.2% prioritize economic cooperation, and 12.4% point to Islamic solidarity and cultural affinity.